26 Oct 2014 | Tony Leon | Sunday Times
THERE were no laughs in Wednesday’s sombre medium-term budget speech by Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene. But, given its grim context and the pain inflicted on South Africa by the markets, it evoked the gallows humour of Samuel Johnson: “When a man knows he is to be hanged, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”
The “fiscal
space” in which government vanity projects can be indulged and hard choices can
be ducked has disappeared. Nene donned the hair shirt — even if he dared not
whisper the word “austerity” — although some of his more ideologically inclined
colleagues seem committed to their bling ways.
Like
a faded suntan, the sunny tales of the “development state”, 5% annual growth,
“countercyclical spending” and “a good story to tell” have been replaced by the
more frigid world of tax hikes and spending cuts.
“These
things are the result of rotten government. To this very day, the government is
pouring money down rat holes, and the people know it. The police are underpaid,
the hospitals understaffed, the roads are disintegrating, the people left to
build shacks for themselves on stolen land; yet there is no end to the minister
of finance’s demand for more money.”
Actually,
this paragraph of vivid vitriol was penned on January 26 1992 by the then
editor of this newspaper, Ken Owen, on the ills of the dying National Party
government.
His
words are a reminder today that it has never been the fate or luck of South
Africa to enjoy sustained periods of good governance, whether the
administration is National or African National.
A
week ago, President Jacob Zuma underlined this point when he compared his
“persecution” over Nkandla with the lack of criticism for the PW Botha airport
in George, although one suspects the public benefit of the latter will outlive
that of the former.
Zuma’s
point of comparison is striking: when you set the bar at ankle height, even my
dachshund can leap over it.
An
antidote to our rather depressing economic situation was provided on the same
day as Nene’s speech by the insightful, down-to-earth Investec boss Stephen
Koseff. He reminded a Cape Town audience that the National Treasury and revenue
service have immeasurably improved in the past 20 years, both in terms of performance
and transparency.
He
also provided a clue as to why taxes are so better collected, even though there
is a R15-billion hole in revenues — a reflection on low growth and not a
failure of collection: “When Pravin Gordhan was in charge he hired a bunch of
old whitey CAs to help with the collection.”
So
for our efficient and communist tax collector, now minister of local government
and traditional affairs, pragmatism, not ideology, prevailed.
I
was struck by this point about why the collection of taxes seems to be an
ideology-free zone of admirable efficiency and not the dumping ground for the
friends of the famous and the centre for semi-unemployable cadres that seem to
be the hiring principles on the boards of so many failing state enterprises.
I
found the answer buried in the pages of a remarkable book written in 2007 by
Paul Collier, then director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at
Oxford University. In a library of tomes about bad governance in poor countries
and some useful solutions, The Bottom Billion stands out.
On
the puzzle of good revenue collection in a sea of state dysfunctionality, he
offers this insight: the function of raising tax revenue was taken out of the
traditional civil service because there was no realistic prospect of making the
traditional system work. But as to why so many governments in the developing
world, along with South Africa, went for the radical option on revenue but not
on service delivery, he says the answer is “depressingly obvious”.
“Governments
benefit from the revenue, whereas ordinary people benefit from basic services.
“Governments
were not prepared to let the traditional civil service continue to sabotage tax
revenues, because governments themselves were the victims.
“They
were prepared to leave basic service delivery unreformed because the governing
elite got its services elsewhere.”
The
FW de Klerk administration did not reform the revenue service, the ANC did. But
De Klerk certainly reformed the political space back in 1990 because he alone,
in comparison with his five NP predecessors, could both read the writing on the
wall and not assume it was addressed to someone else.
His
government had essentially run out of money and its ideology could no longer be
sustained, let alone funded.
Now,
24, years later, the successor government is also running out of money. Here’s
hoping this tight space leads to another “wonderful concentration of the mind”.
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